What the news headlines mean for your super

9 March 2026

The war between the US and Iran has disrupted global trade and travel – and resulted in an oil crisis. 

When major global events unfold, it can lead to sudden ups and downs in financial markets, that often flow on to super balances. 

If recent headlines have left you feeling concerned, you’re not alone. Remember, while market movements can feel unsettling, super is designed to be a long-term investment.  

Let’s look at what’s happening and what it could mean for your super. 

Why does oil have such a big impact on economies? 

So far, the most visible impact for Australians has been felt at the petrol pump, with fuel hitting record prices. The war is pushing up oil prices very quickly because it’s disrupting supply in key regions. Higher fuel prices affect production and transport costs, driving up prices, which drives inflation. This leads to uncertainty in investment markets, which have fallen in response.  

The US and Israel have initiated a military campaign, striking many targets across Iran. In turn Iran has attacked multiple countries it views as sympathetic to the US. Alongside the risk to persons living in the region, these actions have severely disrupted freight flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait carries approximately 20% of the world’s energy supply and other critical exports from the region – most of these exports were destined for countries in Asia Pacific.   

There is a risk that the Strait remains closed for a long enough time that supply chains shut down, in a similar manner as we experienced during Covid in 2020.  

The effect on investment markets has been broad. Firstly, share markets have moved down significantly reflecting the expectation that shipping disruption has a significant impact on the world economy.  

Secondly, bond yields have been moving as investors seek to predict the next move on interest rates from central banks. As this crisis is likely to have an inflationary impact, the probability that interest rates rise has increased. Lastly all investment markets have been very volatile as investors try to understand the implications of the war, the likely disruption to the world economy, and the flip-flopping of the US government on its objectives for, and self-assessed success in this war with, Iran.   

Volatility is part of investing

Over the past 20 years, markets have experienced: 

• The Global Financial Crisis 

• The Covid-19 pandemic 

• Russia’s invasion of Ukraine 

• Trade wars and sharp spikes in inflation 

Each time, markets experienced sharp falls. And each time, over the long term, diversified investors saw markets recover. 

That doesn’t mean downturns are comfortable. They aren’t. 

But super is designed to be a long-term investment. For most GuildSuper members, retirement is still many years away. That long time horizon is one of your biggest advantages. 

Short-term events – even dramatic ones – don’t automatically lead to long-term losses. 

How this affects your super 

Because super funds invest across global markets, movements overseas can influence returns here in Australia. 

In the short term, global instability can: 

• Increase share market volatility 

• Move bond prices 

• Shift currency values (like the Australian dollar) 

• Lead to temporary declines in account balances 

But your super isn’t invested in just one region, one company or one event. 

GuildSuper's investment options are diversified across different asset classes (like shares, bonds and property) and across different regions. That diversification is designed to help manage risk and reduce the impact of any single market shock. 

We also actively monitor markets and adjust portfolios when needed. While no fund is immune to ups and downs, careful portfolio construction plays an important role in navigating uncertain periods. 

What should you do? 

For most members, the answer is: stay focused on the long term. 

History shows that reacting to short-term market movements – for example, switching investment options during a downturn – can lock in losses and make it harder to benefit from a recovery. 

If you’re feeling unsure, it can help to: 

• Check that your investment option matches your long-term goals and comfort with risk 

• Remember that super is a long-term investment 

• Speak to a GuildSuper Coach if you need personal advice or just have questions 

And if you haven’t checked your balance in a while? It’s okay. Super is built to weather different market conditions over time. 

A steady approach in uncertain times 

Global events can be confronting. Political tension, conflict and economic uncertainty affect real communities and real families. But when it comes to your super, our role is to stay disciplined. 

Markets will rise and fall. They always have. What matters most is having a long-term plan, staying diversified and avoiding decisions driven by short-term headlines.  

Your super is invested with your retirement in mind – not just this year’s news cycle.